Governmental response to COVID-19†			COVID-19 outbreak progress within the country†
	case-PH measure intervals	case-PH measure speeds (Favorable vs Moderate)	case-PH measure speeds (Favorable vs Unfavorable)	government response stringency	days between the first global and domestic cases	number of case growing weeks‡	percentage of growing weeks‡
HDI
Very High	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)
High	0.706 (0.229-2.179)	0.841 (0.225-3.145)	0.308 (0.061-1.569)	0.367 (0.085-1.591)	0.389 (0.106-1.425)	1.264 (0.374-4.278)	1.079 (0.348-3.347)
Medium	0.434 (0.89-2.120)	0.358 (0.044-2.929)	0.120* (0.013-1.121)	0.350 (0.048-2.573)	0.875 (0.126-6.055)	1.302 (0.208-8.143)	0.804 (0.151-4.390)
low	0.834 (0.138-5.039)	1.629 (0.107-24.706)	0.198 (0.008-4.737)	0.014*** (0.001-0.341)	0	0.970 (0.066-14.346)	0.350 (0.051-2.393)
International travel volume
Low	..	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	..
High	..	0.848 (0.228-3.149)	2.761 (0.485-15.706)	3.596* (0.969-13.345)	15.492*** (2.387-100.533)	5.867** (1.471-23.394)	..
Health workforce density
High	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)
Low	1.728 (0.532-5.608)	2.129 (0.450-10.069)	8.303** (1.475-46.729)	0.727 (0.176-3.007)	0.435 (0.107-1.772)	0.959 (0.253-3.641)	2.224 (0.629-7.867)
Health expenditure
High	..	..	..	..	..	..	1
Low	..	..	..	..	..	..	2.656** (1.171-6.021)
SPAR scores (2019)
7 core capacity average scores
High	..	..	..	..	1 (ref)	..	..
Medium	..	..	..	..	0.187*** (0.057-0.617)	..	..
Low	..	..	..	..	1.350 (0.157-11.602)	..	..
7 core capacity plus POE average scores
High	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	..	1 (ref)	1 (ref)
Medium	2.535* (0.910-7.058)	1.726 (0.547-5.442)	1.501 (0.427-5.277)	0.620 (0.184-2.083)	..	0.920 (0.319-2.650)	1.074 (0.389-2.965)
Low	2.79 (0.637-12.226)	3.73 (0.669-20.808)	3.467 (0.490-27.126)	10.963* (0.783-153.589)	..	0.073** (0.009-0.622)	0.398 (0.074-2.129)
Health service provision
High	1 (ref)	..	..	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)	1 (ref)
Low	1.095 (0.376-3.188)	..	..	0.422 (0.106-1.689)	0.828 (0.211-3.251)	2.622 (0.651-10.554)	4.914** (1.399-17.257)