Model element Measure Data Source Considerations & Assumptions
Product supply
A. Quantity of total product available to consumers in a defined area for a defined period a1. Sales or distribution volume of product in a defined area - Distribution data - Sales data can be localized to the point of sale which can provide more detailed estimates of where the product is ending up with the consumer.
- Point-of-sale data - Assume that all sales or distribution that occur in the target area translate into use of the product in that area. One could adjust this assumption by multiplying by a factor that accounts for product supply leakage outside of the defined area.
a2. Supply volume of product in a defined area=production–export+import - Manufacturer data (production and inputs) - Production, import, and export data is often less localized than sales data.
- Distribution and export data - Need to account for illegal imports or contraband that may enter the market in the defined area.
- Import data - In the absence of import and/or export data, assume that all production that occurs within the target area remains as supply within the target area. (This makes more sense when the target area is at a national or regional level, not smaller.)
B. Quantity of low quality product available to consumers b1. Quality adjustment factor (loss due to supply of poor quality) This is a number (0 to 1) where 1 represents that 100% of the product is high quality. - External monitoring of product quality (production site inspections) - To maximize product reach, assume that there are no product quality issues in production and product adheres to standard (quality adjustment factor = 1).
- Import monitoring of product quality
- Market or commercial monitoring of product quality
C. Quantity of post-production losses c1. Losses adjustment factor (loss to quality and/or quantity post-production) This is a number (0 to 1) where 1 represents that 100% of the product is available and high quality. - Manufacturer data on supply chain losses - Data is unavailable, use data from a similar product in the market or from the same product in a different market.
- Distribution data on losses - To maximize product reach, assume that there are no product losses post-production (losses adjustment factor = 1).
- Point of sale data on losses
- Market or commercial monitoring of product quality
- Secondary data on other similar products
Consumer use pattern:
D. Average number of users per product consumption unit (Durable products) d1. Average number of users in the unit of consumption - Product specifications - If the product is intended for a single individual’s use, =1
- Consumer survey - If the product is intended for household use, use the average number of individuals in a household in the defined area.
- Secondary data on other similar products - If the product is intended for community use, use the average community size in the defined area.
E. Proportion of total consumer demand consumed by repeat consumers/users in the defined period (Durable products) e1. Time period / product average length of use in defined period - Time period of calculation defined by project team - The time period of estimation is defined by the project team. It may be informed by the time period of the available data or the time period of the project.
- Average length of use from market or consumer survey (direct data collection)
e2. Time period / product recommended length of use in defined period - Time period of calculation defined by project team
- Recommended length of use from product specifications or industry standards
- The time period of estimation is defined by the project team. It may be informed by the time period of the available data or the time period of the project.
F. Use amount: average quantity of the product used per consumption/ use day
(Fast-moving products)
f1. Average quantity of the product used per consumption/ use day (measured directly) - Market or Consumer survey (direct data collection) - If data is unavailable, use data from a similar product (eg, average consumption of the unfortified version of the food)
- Secondary data on other similar products - If data is unavailable for the specific target population, use for the general population and assume consumption patterns are similar.
f2. Recommended use or standard portion size - Producer or project recommended use - For example, for fortified foods standard portion size may be the amount in a single serving.
- Industry standards
G. Use frequency: average number of days the product is used in a defined period
(Fast-moving products)
g1. Average number of days the product is used in a defined period (measured directly) - Market or Consumer survey (direct data collection) - More detailed when disaggregated by subgroup, but more complex and potentially more difficult to explain.
- Secondary data on other similar products - Should take into account repeat vs. dropout vs. new consumers.
- The default will depend on whether the project prefers a conservative or optimistic estimate of product reach.
g2. Recommended use frequency in a defined period - Producer or project recommended use frequency - Less detailed than disaggregated consumption frequencies by consumer subgroups (e2), but more simplistic and easier to explain.
- Industry standards
Product coverage and target population
H. Product coverage h1. Product coverage of the total population in a defined area (measured directly) - Coverage survey
h2. Product coverage of the target group population in a defined area (measured directly) - Coverage survey
I. Target population i1. Total population in a defined area - UN estimates
- Census data
- Project data
i2. Target group population in a defined area - UN estimates
- Census data
- Project data